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Az intézetben született vagy születő félben lévő kutatási eredmények, szakmapolitikai vélemények, valamint az aktuális gaz­dasági, közéleti és társa­dalom­politikai kérdések vitafóruma.



Szerkesztő és moderátor:

Madarász Aladár
E-mail: blog@krtk.mta.hu

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Cikkek

Madarász Aladár

El kell-e utasítani a természetes ráta hipotézisét - O. Blanchard
2017. november 17.

Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?

Working Paper 17-14
November 2017
https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/
 
Fifty years ago, Milton Friedman articulated the natural rate hypothesis. It was composed of two sub-hypotheses: First, the natural rate of unemployment is independent of monetary policy. Second, there is no long-run tradeoff between the deviation of unemployment from the natural rate and inflation. Both propositions have been challenged. Blanchard reviews the arguments and the macro and micro evidence against each and concludes that, in each case, the evidence is suggestive but not conclusive. Policymakers should keep the natural rate hypothesis as their null hypothesis but keep an open mind and put some weight on the alternatives.
 

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Madarász Aladár

A népesség diverzitása és a hosszútávú prosperitás - A. Rodríguez-Pose, V. von Berlepsch
2017. november 17.

 

Population diversity as a crucial source of long-term prosperity in the US

Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, Viola von Berlepsch

10 November 2017  - voxeu.org


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Madarász Aladár

Bizonytalanság és nagy ingadozások - M. King
2017. november 17.

Madarász Aladár

Új gépek az Öreg Hölgy számára - C. Chakraborty, A. Joseph
2017. november 17.

New machines for The Old Lady

Chiranjit Chakraborty and Andreas Joseph

Rapid advances in analytical modelling and information processing capabilities, particularly in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), combined with ever more granular data are currently transforming many aspects of everyday life and work. In this blog post we give a brief overview of basic concepts of ML and potential applications at central banks based on our research. We demonstrate how an artificial neural network (NN) can be used for inflation forecasting which lies at the heart of modern central banking.   We show how its structure can help to understand model reactions. The NN generally outperforms more conventional models. However, it struggles to cope with the unseen post-crises situation which highlights the care needed when considering new modelling approaches.

https://bankunderground.co.uk/ - 10 November 2017 


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Madarász Aladár

Foglyul ejtette-e Trump a Fedet? J. Stiglitz
2017. november 17.

Has Trump Captured the Fed?

US President Donald Trump has an uncanny ability to embrace economic policies, such as the Republicans' proposed tax cuts, that benefit him personally. In choosing the relatively moderate Jerome Powell to chair the Federal Reserve, he realized that an extremist would raise interest rates – any real-estate developer’s worst nightmare.


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Madarász Aladár

A dismal science továbbra is lehangoló - A. Rogers
2017. november 17.

The Dismal Science Remains Dismal, Say Scientists

Adam Rogers
 
https://www.wired.com - 11/14/17

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Madarász Aladár

Miért van szükségük a közgazdászoknak Tolsztojra?
2017. november 17.

Why economists need Tolstoy

 
Economics generally should be a softer science, not even a science, with less precision but more wisdom. Even with more insight, argue Gary Saul Morson and Morton Schapiro in “Cents and Sensibility.” (Princeton University Press/Princeton University Press)
 
 
 
https://www.washingtonpost.com

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Madarász Aladár

Európa kemény mag problémája - H. James
2017. november 17.

Europe’s Hard-Core Problem

With populism endemic in its periphery, the European Union is clearly in a period of deep uncertainty. If EU leaders are ever going to right the ship, they will need to identify the root cause of today's instability, which is not so much about economics or immigration as it is about de facto Franco-German leadership.


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Madarász Aladár

Izland felemelkedése, bukása és újraéledése
2017. november 17.

The Rise, the Fall, and the Resurrection of Iceland

Sigríður Benediktsdóttir, Gauti B. Eggertsson, Eggert Þórarinsson

NBER Working Paper No. 24005
Issued in November 2017
NBER Program(s):   ME

This paper documents how the Icelandic banking system grew from 100 percent of GDP in 1998 to 9 times GDP in 2008 when it failed. We base the analysis on data from the banks that was made public when the Icelandic parliament lifted among others bank secrecy laws to investigate the run up to the financial crisis. We document how the banks were funded, and where the money went with a comprehensive analysis of their lending. We also analyze policies implemented after the crash, including emergency legislation, capital control, alleviation of balance of payment risks and preservation of the financial stability. We estimate the output costs of the crisis, which was about average relative to the 147 banking crisis documented Laeven and Valencia (2012) and the 100 banking crisis documented by Reinhart and Rogoff (2014). Our computation of the governments direct costs, reveals that the recently concluded negotiation with foreign creditors may leave the Icelandic government in net surplus as a consequence of the crisis, although there is still some uncertainty about the ultimate cost and our benchmark estimate is a cost corresponding to 5 percent of GDP. We summarize several lessons from the episode.


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Madarász Aladár

A katalán szindróma - T. Piketty
2017. november 17.

The Catalan syndrom

Thomas Piketty
 

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Utolsó módosítás:
2017-11-17 15:51:34